Executive Summary

Q2 2025 was operationally active but financially uneventful: revenue was $0.00M and GAAP diluted EPS was ($0.17), missing the S&P Global consensus of ($0.14); revenue was in line with a $0 consensus, but coverage remains thin (one estimate). The adjusted EBITDA loss was ($4.0)M, reflecting continued investment during heavy customer activity . EPS consensus and targets are from S&P Global data.*
The key negative: STMicro shifted its BCD110/MST rollout from 200mm to 300mm, pushing process qualification out of 2025; management now does not expect ST milestones until next year, though the ultimate capacity potential at 300mm is larger .
Positives: management cited a “period of heavy customer wafer run activity” across multiple technologies, broadened RF-SOI emphasis to LNAs to address handset power demands, surpassed 400 issued+pending patents, joined the NSTC to improve advanced-node prototyping access, and announced a GaN-on-Si collaboration with Incize (RF and power) .
Near-term outlook: small NRE revenue expected in Q3 from wafer shipments; FY25 non-GAAP OpEx guidance maintained at $17.25–$17.75M, tracking to the low end, while ST qualification timing/milestones shift to 2026—likely the dominant stock narrative near term .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

“Heavy customer wafer run activity across multiple technologies” with new insights delivered to licensees; multiple transformative customers running large demos or multiple applications, broadening potential paths to production .
RF-SOI expansion into LNAs to reduce handset power consumption as carriers move from 4 to 6 CA channels; multiple customers initiated wafer runs using ultra-thin RF-SOI wafers to validate LNA benefits .
Strategic progress: 400+ patents; NSTC membership to improve access to advanced-node prototyping and potential CHIPS Act opportunities; GaN-on-Si collaboration with Incize extends reach into RF and power .

What Went Wrong

STMicro BCD110/MST: shift to 300mm delays the program; management does not expect process qualification in 2025, pushing milestone revenue into next year .
Revenue remained de minimis ($0.00M), with GAAP net loss ($5.0)M and adjusted EBITDA loss ($4.0)M, reflecting ongoing investment ahead of commercialization .
Modest dilution: ~$0.8M raised via ATM in Q2, plus ~$2.0M post-quarter; necessary to sustain activity but raises investor sensitivity to timing of first production deals .

Financial Results

Quarterly financials (oldest → newest)

Metric	Q4 2024	Q1 2025	Q2 2025
Revenue ($USD Millions)	$0.02	$0.00	$0.00
Gross Profit ($USD Millions)	$0.01	$0.00	($0.06)
Total Operating Expenses ($USD Millions)	$4.88	$5.47	$5.19
Operating Loss ($USD Millions)	($4.87)	($5.46)	($5.26)
Net Loss ($USD Millions)	($4.66)	($5.21)	($4.97)
Diluted EPS ($)	($0.16)	($0.17)	($0.17)
Adjusted EBITDA (Non-GAAP) ($USD Millions)	($3.91)	($4.44)	($3.97)
Cash & Equivalents ($USD Millions)	$26.78	$24.12	$22.03
Weighted Avg Shares (Millions)	28.93	30.24	30.40

YoY snapshot (Q2 2025 vs Q2 2024)

Metric	Q2 2024	Q2 2025
Revenue ($USD Millions)	$0.00	$0.00
Diluted EPS ($)	($0.16)	($0.17)
Adjusted EBITDA (Non-GAAP) ($USD Millions)	($3.63)	($3.97)

Actual vs Consensus (Q2 2025)

Metric	Consensus	Actual	Surprise
EPS (Primary)	($0.14)*	($0.17)	Miss
Revenue ($USD Millions)	$0.00*	$0.00	In line

Note: Adjusted EBITDA reconciling items in Q2 included $1.278M stock-based compensation, $0.234M interest income, and $0.012M depreciation, among others .
*Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Segment breakdown: Not disclosed; the company reiterates minimal engineering services/licensing revenue to date .

KPIs

Patents issued & pending: 402
Shares outstanding (period-end): 31.1M as of June 30, 2025
Customer activity: management reported “heavy customer wafer run activity” across multiple technologies

Guidance Changes

Metric	Period	Previous Guidance	Current Guidance	Change
Non-GAAP OpEx	FY 2025	$17.25–$17.75M (Q1 call)	Maintained; tracking to low end	Maintained (bias to low end)
NRE Revenue	Q3 2025	N/A	Expect “small amount” of NRE revenue; timing depends on shipments	New qualitative
ST Milestone Payments	FY 2025/2026	Next major rev milestone (upon PQ); no timing provided (Q1)	Not expected until next year	Deferred

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Topic	Q4 2024 (Q-2)	Q1 2025 (Q-1)	Q2 2025 (Current)	Trend
STMicro commercialization	Near PQ; typical PQ ~9 months once started; prior 6-month tool-install delay; schedule not disclosed	Manufacturability/yield focus; multiple ST BUs engaged	200mm→300mm shift delays rollout; no PQ in 2025; milestones next year	Timeline pushed out; larger long-term capacity potential
Gate-All-Around + OEM partner	GAA framed as major opportunity	Strategic agreement with a leading equipment vendor; leverage sales/marketing	Weekly joint work; prioritized applications; business engagement ramping	Execution deepening; commercialization pathway clearer
RF-SOI (LNAs)	RF power switches + LNA benefits noted	LNA projects initiated; runs on ultra-thin RF-SOI wafers	LNA power-reduction focus as CA bands expand; multiple new wafer runs	Intensifying; nearer-term adoption vector
GaN-on-Si	Electrical results imminent; potential faster time-to-revenue path	First MST-enabled GaN devices at Sandia; prelim electrical improvements	Incize collaboration for RF/power; expanding scope to RF	Ecosystem building; validation broadening
AI/Data center power (SPX)	48V rack opportunity highlighted	Continued power interest (customers, apps)	Reinforced as target market; 48V trench FET discussions	Sustained tailwind
NSTC/CHIPS access	—	—	Joined NSTC; improves prototyping access; potential funding visibility	New enabler

Management Commentary

“Right now, Atomera is in a period of heavy customer wafer run activity across multiple technologies that we are confident will lead us to future commercial agreements.” — Scott Bibaud, CEO
“ST has changed plans and decided to go directly to 300 millimeter, which will delay the rollout of BCD110 with MST. We… will not enter process qualification in 2025.” — Scott Bibaud
“We determined that MST can significantly improve the performance of LNAs by lowering the circuit bias current and hence the power consumption… several RF SOI manufacturers [started] new wafer runs.” — Scott Bibaud
“Our balance of cash and cash equivalents as of 06/30/2025, was $22,000,000… For Q3, we expect to recognize a small amount of NRE revenue… Given ST’s shift… we do not expect that milestone payments… will happen until next year.” — Frank Laurencio, CFO
“Our tally of issued and pending patents exceeded 400… we also joined the National Semiconductor Technology Center…” — Scott Bibaud

Q&A Highlights

STMicro delay and 300mm migration: Management emphasized learnings on MST deposition/manufacturability transfer to 300mm, and offered interim 300mm deposition support from Atomera tools to accelerate progress; PQ timing still restricted, but confidence remains that 300mm migration is executable once tools are in place .
Transformative customers: One running the largest demo in Atomera history across two BUs; first results may emerge by year-end but likely iterative; another running multiple applications in parallel .
Equipment partner: Strategic focus on GAA, with weekly engineering coordination and increasing customer-facing business engagements; aim is faster, more validated solutions to win designs .
DRAM/HBM and architectural IP: Ongoing engagement; several MST-enabled DRAM patents plus broader architectural IP for potential future revenue streams (beyond MST films) once patents are fully issued .
OpEx/hiring: FY25 non-GAAP OpEx guidance maintained; backfilling sales/marketing and adding engineering depth for advanced nodes/DRAM to meet demand, without implying structural multi-year spend acceleration .

Estimates Context

Q2 2025 EPS of ($0.17) missed the S&P Global consensus of ($0.14) with one covering estimate; revenue was in line at $0.00M vs $0.00M consensus. Target price consensus stands at $5 on one estimate.*
With minimal revenue visibility and milestone timing deferred to 2026 for ST, estimates may drift lower on timing, though incremental NRE in Q3 and broadening customer activity could modestly cushion near-term models .

Note: All consensus figures marked with an asterisk are Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

Commercial timing risk increased near term: ST’s move to 300mm delays the BCD110/MST qualification into 2026—now the critical gating item for royalty inflection; watch for interim signs of 300mm tool readiness and PQ start as the next catalyst .
Pipeline breadth and intensity are improving: multiple transformative customers executing large/multi-application runs; RF-SOI LNA vector could be a nearer-term entry point given clear handset power needs .
Strategic leverage via OEM partnership and NSTC: joint validation with a top equipment vendor plus NSTC access should lower barriers to advanced-node proofs and speed enterprise sales cycles over time .
Cash runway is adequate but monitored: $22.0M at Q2 plus ~$2.0M post-quarter ATM supports activity; maintain focus on NRE inflows and controlled OpEx (guidance to low end) to bridge to first royalties .
GaN optionality expanding: Incize collaboration adds RF dimension to GaN-on-Si; as electrical datasets mature, sampling revenue could arrive ahead of traditional licensing milestones .
Trading setup: the narrative will key on ST tool/qualification checkpoints vs. evidence of design wins/expanding demos elsewhere (RF-SOI LNA, power SPX 48V, GAA/Mem) that could diversify the first-revenue path .
Modeling: keep FY25 revenue minimal, incorporate small Q3 NRE, maintain FY25 non-GAAP OpEx near low end of $17.25–$17.75M; push ST milestone revenue to 2026 per management commentary .

Atomera Inc (ATOM)·Q2 2025 Earnings Summary